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    Serves a Daily Special and an All-You-Can-Eat Course in Problem Solving. Courtesy of me, Jeffrey Wang.
 
You Have Been Numberized. Topic: Calculus/Statistics. November 14th, 2006

Introduction: Consider devising a rating system in which matches consisting of an arbitrary number of “players” are “played.” After each match, the rating of each player should reflect the position of that player among all competitors.

Solution: Obviously, this is only an idea. There’s not a set “solution” to his. Let the players be  P_1, P_2, \ldots, P_n with corresponding ratings  R_1, R_2, \ldots, R_n and volatilities  V_1, V_2, \ldots, V_n . We will let the initial values of  R_i be  1000 and the initial values of  V_i be  100 . Basically, the performance of player  P_i will be a random variable with normal distribution with mean  R_i and standard deviation  V_i . The performance distribution will be

 S_i(x) = \frac{1}{V_i \sqrt{2\pi}} e^{-\frac{(x-R_i)^2}{2V_i^2}} .

We let  \displaystyle D_i(x) = \int_{-\infty}^x S_i(t) dt be the cumulative distribution.

Assume  k players  P_1, P_2, \ldots, P_k participate in a match. We will recalculate ratings according to the following steps:

(1) Find the weight of the competition, depending on the total rating of the participants. We would like it to take on values between zero and one, so try something like

 W = \left(\frac{\sum_{i=1}^k R_i}{\sum_{i=1}^n R_i}\right)^{\frac{1}{C}} ,

for a suitable constant  C > 1 . Basically, this is small when there are not a lot of players, but increases rapidly as the rating of the participants approaches the total rating.

(2) For a player  P_m , we will calculate his expected rank based on the normal distribution. Let  P(m, j) be the probability that  P_m loses to  P_j . It turns out to be

 \displaystyle P(m,j) = \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} S_j(x) \cdot D_m(x) dx .

So if we sum up the probabilities that  P_m will lose to each player (including himself), we get the expected rank  E_m of  P_m , or

 \displaystyle E_m = 0.5+\sum_{j=1}^k P(m,j) ,

where the  0.5 is to shift the best ranking to  1 .

(3) The actual rank of  P_m is  A_m , and we want to base rating changes on the difference  E_m-A_m . If  I_m is the number of competitions  P_m has participated in, calculate the new  R^{\prime}_m as

 R^{\prime}_m = R_m+\frac{WK}{I_m+1}(E_m-A_m) ,

where  K is a suitable positive constant for equating differences in ranking to differences in rating.

(4) We now update the volatility  V_m . If the player’s performance is relatively close to the expected performance, we want  V_m to decrease to imply stability of the player. On the other hand, if the player performs exceptionally well or poorly, we want  V_m to increase to reflect inconsistency. We propose the following change:

 V^{\prime}_m = V_m+WQ_1(|E_m-A_m|-Q) ,

where  Q_1, Q_2 are suitable positive constants.  Q_1 determines the magnitude of volatility change and  Q_2 determines the threshold for which performance is considered relatively constant.

All in all, this rating system depends a lot on experimentally finding the constants to put into working use. Otherwise, it seems like it would work.

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Comment: Rating systems are always controversial and people are always trying to devise ways to get around it. On a lighter note, many restrictions can be added like a rating change cap or a volatility cap. Stabilizers for higher ratings are also a possibility (i.e. reducing the weight of each match). Any thoughts?

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